Back to Analyst

Oil, gasoline inventories surge as demand remains seasonally weak


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly report today on the status of petroleum inventories in the United States. Here are some highlights:

Crude oil inventories increased by 8.0 million barrels (MMbbl) to a total of 445.0 MMbbl. At 445.0 MMbbl, inventories are 33.4 MMbbl above last year (8.1%) and are roughly 9% above the five year average for this time of year. Inventories at the major delivery point in Cushing, OK fell 0.2 MMbbl to a total of 41.3 million barrels.

Gasoline inventories increased by 4.1 million barrels (MMbbl) to a total of 259.6 MMbbl. At 259.6 MMbbl, inventories are up 15.6 MMbbl, or 6.4% higher than a year ago and are about 6% higher than the five-year average range for this time of year.

Here’s how individual regions and their gasoline inventory fared:
• East Coast (+2.1 MMbbl)
• Midwest (+1.3 MMbbl)
• Gulf Coast (-0.4 MMbbl)
• Rockies (+0.1 MMbbl)
• West Coast (+0.9 MMbbl)

It’s important to note which regions saw increases/decreases as this information likely drives prices up (in the case of falling inventories) or down (in the case of rising inventories).

Distillate inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels to a total of 142.4 MMbbl. At 142.4 MMbbl, inventories are up 2.6 MMbbl, or 1.8% higher vs. a year ago. Distillate inventories now stand about 2% below the five-year average range for this time of year.

Gasoline supplied to end users amounted to 8.87 million barrels per day (MMbpd), or 303,000 bpd higher than the previous week. So far in 2019, implied demand (“products supplied”) is 0.1% lower versus 2018, per the EIA.

Refinery utilization decreased by 1.7% vs. last week’s numbers to reach 92.9%. Gasoline production increased to 9.6 million barrels per day while distillate fuel production decreased to 5.2 million barrels per day last week.

Utilization rates for the last week were as follows:
• East Coast: 88.6% (-5.7%)
• Midwest: 98.6% (+0.8%)
• Gulf Coast: 92.1% (-2.1%)
• Rocky Mountain: 95.1% (+2.3%)
• West Coast: 88.7% (-3.1%)

These percentages show how much of a region’s overall capacity were used to refine oil. It’s important to note these percentages, because the lower the utilization percent, the lower output — which has a direct impact on local gasoline prices. If refiners in your region have low output, you’re more likely to see gas prices rise.

Total oil stocks in the United States are up by 64.1 MMbbl (5.3%) versus a year ago and stand at 1.27 billion barrels (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve).

The U.S. imported 8.2 MMbpd of crude oil per day last week, up by 664,000 bpd vs. the previous week, while crude oil exports fell 931,000 bpd to 2,035,000 bpd. Total motor gasoline imports last week averaged 561,000 bpd. The U.S. also imported 355,000 bpd of distillate fuels. However, during the same time frame, the U.S. exported 547,000 bpd of finished gasoline and 979,000 bpd of distillates. In total, U.S. refineries exported 6.95 MMbpd of oil and petroleum products.

Before the report was released, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up 18 cents to $52.80 per barrel. Just after the report was released, oil was up 6 cents per barrel.

Head of Petroleum Analysis (USA)

Patrick has developed into the leading source for reliable and accurate information on gas price hikes. Patrick has been interviewed as a gasoline price expert hundreds of times since 2004. Based in Chicago, Patrick brings to GasBuddy all his assets to help consumers by giving reliable and accurate price forecasts, including the San Jose Mercury News dubbing Patrick "one of the nation's most accurate forecasters" in 2012.