Back to Analyst

National Average Inches Higher in Last Week, Break Coming

|

For the sixth straight week, the U.S. national average price of gasoline has risen, up 2.6 cents per gallon to $2.37 per gallon this morning. Average gas prices have risen in a majority of states, but it appears that at least some states may begin to see increases taper off, thanks to crude oil prices starting off the week by falling $1.18 per barrel to $52.81. The national average stands down a penny versus yesterday, a sign that perhaps a plateau is here.

For the second straight week, 46 states saw their average gasoline price rise while just four saw prices move lower.

Leading states higher was Delaware, rising 8.1 cents to $2.39, while Pennsylvania rose 7.8 cents to $2.64, Oregon rose 7.1 cents to $2.53 and Washington rose 6.9 cents to $2.72 per gallon. A total of 27 states saw gas prices rise between 1-3 cents per gallon.

Leading decliners was Indiana, down 7.2 cents to $2.33, while Kentucky fell 1.6 cents to $2.33, Florida fell 0.6 cents to $2.40 and Illinois fell just 0.2 cents to $2.50 per gallon.

Meanwhile, just 9,500 gas stations across the U.S. are holding on to gas prices at $2 per gallon or less, while a year ago nearly 100,000 (73%) of the nation’s gas stations saw such pricing. Today finds 66.5% of U.S. gas stations over $2.25 per gallon, a rise from 13.4% a year ago. However, the most common gas price across the country fell from $2.399 yesterday to $2.199 this morning. A week ago, the most common price was $2.299.

States leading the country on both sides of the spectrum today:

Lowest average

  • South Carolina ($2.13)
  • Oklahoma ($2.14)
  • Tennessee ($2.14)
  • Arizona ($2.14)
  • Mississippi ($2.15)

Highest average:

  • Hawaii ($3.05)
  • California ($2.81)
  • Washington ($2.72)
  • Alaska ($2.71)
  • Pennsylvania ($2.64)

The moves come as retail prices in many areas continue to catch up to the month-and-a half-long rally in crude oil prices after OPEC announced supply cuts. The two-year era of low oil prices was just too challenging for OPEC—led by Saudi Arabia—to stomach. It was back in November of 2014 that Saudi Arabia indicated they were going to pump as much oil as possible to regain market share lost to the United States, and the new reversal of that move is the sole reason oil and gasoline prices have risen.

Absent the policy shift from OPEC, oil prices would likely be getting dragged through the mud as the U.S. sees relatively low demand during January and February. However, as was said last week, there are signs brewing that motorists are still likely to get a small break from the rising prices during mid-January, lasting through mid-February. Gasoline inventories soared last week, building supplies of winter gasoline at a time of year demand has been tepid at best. The buildup in inventories will need to be liquidated before refiners transition to summer gasoline, which usually begins in late-February. One way refiners move this product is to offer discounts, which typically entices stations to fill their tanks often, depleting the winter spec fuel.

Head of Petroleum Analysis (USA)

Patrick has developed into the leading source for reliable and accurate information on gas price hikes. Patrick has been interviewed as a gasoline price expert hundreds of times since 2004. Based in Chicago, Patrick brings to GasBuddy all his assets to help consumers by giving reliable and accurate price forecasts, including the San Jose Mercury News dubbing Patrick "one of the nation's most accurate forecasters" in 2012.